Around 45 people per day are expected to die from cardiovascular disease linked to excess weight and obesity in England over the next decade if current trends continue.
Rates of overweight and obesity in England are stubbornly high, with 2 in 3 adults affected (66%). From 2026 to 2035, estimates show that if nothing changes, nearly 170,000 lives could be lost to cardiovascular disease linked to excess weight and obesity - that’s equivalent to over twice the capacity of the World Cup Final 2026 stadium.
Obesity remains one of the leading causes of preventable ill health in the UK.
It’s a significant risk factor for heart and circulatory diseases, as carrying excess weight can lead to fatty build-up in the arteries, restricting blood flow and increasing the risk of heart attacks and strokes. It can also raise blood pressure, cholesterol and the risk of type 2 diabetes - all of which put extra strain on the heart and can be fatal.
Around 1 in 9 cardiovascular deaths in England are attributed to excess weight and obesity every year, underlining the scale of the crisis.
Levelling the playing field
High levels of deprivation across the country and the ubiquity of unhealthy food in everyday life are key drivers of the obesity epidemic in England, with high fat, salt and sugary foods more readily available, affordable and heavily promoted compared with healthier options.
Obesity levels vary across the country. This analysis shows that the Northeast of England has the highest percentage of obese adults (36%), followed closely by the West Midlands (34%), whereas London has the lowest rate (21%).
To help address this growing issue, we are calling on the UK Government to introduce its Healthy Food Standard (HFS) - a key policy to incentivise food businesses to improve the nation’s diet.
'Sleepwalking into an obesity epidemic'
Dr Charmaine Griffiths, our Chief Executive said: “We’re at risk of sleepwalking further into an obesity epidemic which will have dire consequences for decades to come.
"Obesity is one of the biggest drivers of cardiovascular disease, so if we don’t keep momentum, there could be tens of thousands of families who will lose loved ones needlessly over the next decade. These deaths are not inevitable. Bold action now by the UK Government could mean preventing more lives being cut short by obesity.
“The Government has promised a ‘healthy food revolution’, but it’s yet to materialise. Pledges must become policy sooner rather than later if we’re to stop heart attacks and strokes robbing thousands of the chance to live a long, healthy life.”
Why we need the Healthy Food Standard
The Healthy Food Standard will require businesses to report on the healthiness of their sales and subsequently meet Government targets, with flexibility in how they achieve this, whether through reformulation or promoting healthier products. The aim is to make the healthy choice much easier for busy families when shopping.
One year on from the policy’s announcement, a formal consultation has yet to be published by the Government – a vital step to ensure the policy can be delivered as quickly as possible.
We’re calling for the consultation to start without further delay to ensure there is sufficient time for businesses to report on healthy sales, and so that healthy sales targets can be set and met as soon as possible. This is even more urgent now that there is set to be a change in Prime Minister, which could risk the policy falling victim to changing politics.
Health experts believe the policy would incentivise the food industry to make small changes that will drive up the healthiness of everyday products, for example, by reducing saturated fat, salt and sugar in some products. This could have a significant impact on improving the nation’s health.
The analysis
These figures are based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, which estimates that there were 16,156 cardiovascular disease deaths attributable to high BMI in England in 2023, at a rate of 28 deaths per 100,000 people.
Our analysts applied this rate of BMI-attributable cardiovascular mortality to Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) mid-year population projections for England for the period 2026 to 2035. This resulted in projections of around 16,500 to 17,100 of these deaths each year across the forecast period, with the number of deaths rising over the projection period due to a growing population.
Find out more about obesity and the heart
