Predicting cardiovascular disease rates in England using novel mathematical models
BHF Intermediate Basic Science Research Fellow Dr Peter Scarborough is developing a new computer model that can predict heart and circulatory disease rates until 2030. In recent years the influence of risk factors for heart and circulatory disease has changed. Smoking rates have fallen, and new and better drugs have helped lower blood pressure and cholesterol levels. However, at the same time, body weights have increased and diabetes has become more prevalent. Overall rates of heart and circulatory disease have fallen, but some experts believe rates may soon rise. Current predictions are only based on past trends, so they are not very accurate. In this project, Dr Scarborough will produce the first ever computer model to forecast heart and circulatory disease rates in England until 2030. He will use mathematical models developed in astrophysics and geology to do this. The new model should enable scientists to accurately estimate whether increasing obesity rates will increase rates of heart and circulatory disease, including heart attack, angina and heart failure, and if so, when this will happen. Dr Scarborough and his team are also estimating the impact of better risk factor management. This research will generate a model that will help NHS England plan the resources they need to deal with the health challenges of the future, and develop health campaigns to prevent them.
Project details
| Grant amount | £635,517 |
|---|---|
| Grant type | Fellowships |
| Application type | Intermediate Basic Science Research Fellowship |
| Start Date | 01 January 2016 |
| Duration | 6 years |
| Reference | FS/15/34/31656 |
| Status | In Progress |
