Developing a more accurate test to predict a person’s risk of heart disease

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin in the prevention of cardiovascular disease

Doctors have a number of tests they can use to help predict a person’s risk of developing heart and circulatory disease in the future. Although they are reasonably accurate, sometimes they over-estimate the risk. A new and very sensitive blood test that measures the amount of a molecule called cardiac troponin I is now available. Dr Anoop Shah will test whether cardiac troponin concentrations can act as a measure of heart health and improve the accurate identification of people most at risk of future heart and circulatory problems. In the first stage of the fellowship, Professor Shah will use previous studies of the cardiac troponin test where researchers have recorded the number of patients who had subsequent heart or circulatory problems. He will look at individual patients’ history to determine whether there is a cut-off of cardiac troponin that strongly indicates people would benefit from treatment to prevent heart disease. In the second stage, he will combine data on all deaths, hospital episodes and admissions for all people admitted to hospital in Scotland (with results from the first stage), to develop an overall risk estimation score. The improved risk score could then be tested in a much larger study to test the role of cardiac troponin-guided risk estimation on clinical outcomes.