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A new risk scoring system to predict complications after heart surgery

Professor Charles McCollum (lead researcher)

University of Manchester

Start date: 01 November 2016 (Duration 3 years)

Developing a real-time Intensive Care Risk Identification System (IRIS) for the early identification and treatment of complications following cardiac surgery

Professor Charles McCollum and his team at the University of Manchester are developing an innovative new risk score to minimise complications during open heart surgery. Ten per cent of people having open heart surgery develop life-threatening complications such as bleeding, abnormal heart rhythms or kidney failure. Unfortunately, warning signs of these complications are often missed in the early stages, when they could be prevented, and existing risk prediction scores calculate risk too late. In this project, Professor McCollum will work on computer modelling techniques that continuously update the predicted risk scores for major complications after open heart surgery. This ‘Intensive Care Risk Identification System’, or IRIS, will predict a patient’s individual risk and spot any deterioration, based on changes in their vital signs, compared to their own previous measurements. This will help doctors to predict major complications and give them time to prevent them developing, or reduce their impact. IRIS will be developed using data from 3,100 open heart surgery patients and then tested for accuracy in over 800 open heart surgery patients. This new risk scoring system may help hospitals prevent complications and reduce the risk of death after heart surgery. It could reduce recovery time and quality of life for people having open heart surgery.

Project details

Grant amount £313,345
Grant type Project Grants
Application type Project Grant
Start Date 01 November 2016
Duration 3 years
Reference PG/16/80/32411
Status In Progress
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