People taking part in an exercise classModelling the burden of Cardiovascular Disease Working Group

This Working Group aims to ensure that plans to improve CVD services consider the impact of the future burden of disease.

In 2008, the CVC commissioned a scoping project aimed at identifying and analysing the best models for the purpose of predicting the future burden of CVD.  That project is now complete.

The overall aims of this project were to:

- Provide comparative predictive data of CVD prevalence and incidence in the UK to the year 2020

- Identify, analyse and critique models for predicting future burden of CVD

- Inform the other work and objectives of the CVC

- Assist the CVC identify priorities and an action plan for future modelling research

- Inform evidence-based policy development

- Provide powerful evidence to the commissioners of health and social care services when planning the best way to support CVD patients and their families.

The research report demonstrates the scale of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) - shown to be large, costly, and increasing. Whilst  mortality from CVD has fallen, an increasing population over the next decade will create further demands on services as the actual numbers of people living with CVD climb higher. Led by Professor Simon Capewell, this report was produced by a joint team from the Universities of Liverpool, Oxford and Newcastle.

The report's analysis of modelling work conducted in the UK to date demonstrates the need to build on this study to develop and implement a comprehensive, iterative method for mapping the future burden of CVD. The Cardio & Vascular Coalition is calling for measures to develop a comprehensive modelling process that will aid our ability to more accurately determine the future burden of CVD.

With the timetable of the National Service Framework for Coronary Heart Disease coming to a close in 2009-2010, there is uncertainty over whether a new strategy will take its place. Yet this report demonstrates the magnitude of the future burden of CVD and the need to plan for the road ahead. The CVC is calling for a new framework to help in the long-term planning of prevention and treatment services to tackle CVD head on.

This report will be used to inform the CVC's Cardio & Vascular Health Strategy 2010-2020. The Strategy will be published in early 2009, and aims to set out the Coalition's proposals to tackle CVD over the next 10 years.

Download the research report here (pdf file 850k)